Paul Graham anticipated a major trend in the computer world before most people, which led him to successfully pioneer a new technology (web-based stores). I was surprised while reading “The Other Road Ahead” because of how much he predicted back in 2001. During the last 20 years, the web has become extremely powerful (HTML + CSS + JavaScript + device APIs can replicate basically any desktop program) and fast (near real-time collaboration, live updates, and streaming are now the norm). People expect to be able to try things without any installation or sign-up, and they expect them to be fast and pretty and easy to use.

Society should encourage risk taking and starting businesses, because that is the only way technology can develop quickly. However, this should not be promoted as the only way to become successful (whether that means becoming rich or fulfilled or any other metric of success). It is well-known that most startups fail, but those that succeed turn out to produce valuable products. Startups are about as high-risk, high-reward as they come; the trouble is that we mostly only hear about the successes, which gives people an unrealistic impression of the success rate overall.

Certain types of people are well-suited to starting a company, and others aren’t. One must have an extremely high risk tolerance and enough of a safety net to not be ruined if it fails. It takes someone who is personally dedicated to the company’s success—someone who realizes that significant profit is far down the road, maybe even years. They will have to work long hours—often many more than a standard 40-hour work week—and without a reliable income. This kind of work is not suited for most people, who prefer to have a life outside of their work, such as hobbies, social life, and family time. It is a combination of personality and resources that make an ideal startup starter. Someone with a strong safety net, such as enough personal wealth that draining a chunk into a failed company wouldn’t impact them all that much, doesn’t need enough risk tolerance as someone who pours their life savings into a startup.

However, society should not emphasize startups as a way to make a lot of money. Besides the fact that this is not true in all cases (as stated above, plenty of times you will lose a lot of money instead of making a lot), I believe money is a terrible reason to spend every waking hour of the day on work. For someone who launches a startup primarily or even significantly for the love of what they’re doing or building, this is good and healthy because they derive fulfillment from the work itself. But for someone who is just counting the days until they can sell their company and pocket a huge check, I see them wasting this period of their life away. Sure, you could see it as putting in a lot of work up front in exchange for an early retirement and relaxation later in life, as Graham says. But it seems to me that a lot of people end up getting bitten by the rich bug and spend the rest of their life trying to get more money than they already have (or need). Seeking money is no way to live a good life.

If I knew what the next big thing was, I wouldn’t say it here. But trends tend to move in cycles, and I would not be surprised to see society shift somewhat away from an over-reliance on technology and favor tech that is unintrusive and simple.